Remember When This was So Fictional it Was Funny?

Another one from December that I hadn't thought to put here.  Check out the quiz at the end.

R̶a̶c̶h̶e̶l̶ ̶P̶h̶e̶l̶p̶s̶ Lew Wolff, a f̶o̶r̶m̶e̶r̶ ̶L̶a̶s̶ ̶V̶e̶g̶a̶s̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶w̶g̶i̶r̶l̶ real estate mogul, has i̶n̶h̶e̶r̶i̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶C̶l̶e̶v̶e̶l̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶I̶n̶d̶i̶a̶n̶s̶ purchased the Oakland Athletics baseball team from h̶e̶r̶ ̶d̶e̶c̶e̶a̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶h̶u̶s̶b̶a̶n̶d̶ a couple guys who didn't want to win. S̶he wants to move the team to the w̶a̶r̶m̶e̶r̶ richer climate of M̶i̶a̶m̶i̶ San Jose. In order to do this, s̶he must reduce the season's attendance ̶a̶t̶ ̶M̶u̶n̶i̶c̶i̶p̶a̶l̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶d̶i̶u̶m̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶u̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶8̶0̶0̶,̶0̶0̶0̶ ̶t̶i̶c̶k̶e̶t̶s̶ ̶s̶o̶l̶d̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶i̶c̶h̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶t̶r̶i̶g̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶
a̶n̶ ̶e̶s̶c̶a̶p̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶a̶u̶s̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶e̶a̶m̶'̶s̶ ̶l̶e̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶i̶t̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶C̶l̶e̶v̶e̶l̶a̶n̶d̶ to perpetuate the narrative that Oakland fans don't care about the team.  He alienates every fan possible starting at the introductory presser.̶ After s̶he moves the team, s̶he would also be able to release all the current players and replace them with new ones. S̶he instructs n̶e̶w̶ General Manager C̶h̶a̶r̶l̶i̶e̶ ̶D̶o̶n̶o̶v̶a̶n̶ Billy Beane to hire the worst team possible from a list she has already prepared. The list includes v̶e̶t̶e̶r̶a̶n̶ ̶c̶a̶t̶c̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶J̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶T̶a̶y̶l̶o̶r̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶b̶l̶e̶m̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶k̶n̶e̶e̶s̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶a̶s̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶M̶e̶x̶i̶c̶o̶;̶ ̶i̶n̶c̶a̶r̶c̶e̶r̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶
p̶i̶t̶c̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶R̶i̶c̶k̶y̶ ̶V̶a̶u̶g̶h̶n̶;̶ ̶p̶o̶w̶e̶r̶-̶h̶i̶t̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶P̶e̶d̶r̶o̶ ̶C̶e̶r̶r̶a̶n̶o̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶p̶r̶a̶c̶t̶i̶c̶e̶s̶ ̶v̶o̶o̶d̶o̶o̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶t̶r̶y̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶p̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶ ̶
c̶u̶r̶v̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶l̶l̶s̶;̶ ̶v̶e̶t̶e̶r̶a̶n̶ ̶p̶i̶t̶c̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶E̶d̶d̶i̶e̶ ̶H̶a̶r̶r̶i̶s̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶n̶o̶ ̶l̶o̶n̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶t̶r̶o̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶r̶m̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶c̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶d̶o̶c̶t̶o̶r̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶
p̶i̶t̶c̶h̶e̶s̶;̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶r̶d̶ ̶b̶a̶s̶e̶m̶a̶n̶ ̶R̶o̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶D̶o̶r̶n̶,̶ ̶a̶ ̶o̶n̶e̶-̶t̶i̶m̶e̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶r̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶u̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶t̶r̶a̶c̶t̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶b̶e̶c̶o̶m̶e̶ ̶a̶ ̶h̶i̶g̶h̶-̶p̶r̶i̶c̶e̶d̶ ̶
p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶n̶a̶.̶ trading current all-stars "to get back younger players in return than those they dealt. They aren’t hiding the fact that the players they’d be looking for are ones who’d be playing in any potential new stadium. The soonest the A’s could get a stadium completed would be in three years, for the 2015 season. So Double-A players, maybe even high Class-A players could be on their wish lists, conceivably."  As manager, P̶h̶e̶l̶p̶s̶ Beane hires L̶o̶u̶ ̶B̶r̶o̶w̶n̶ Bob Melvin, a̶ ̶t̶i̶r̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶m̶a̶n̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶"̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶m̶a̶n̶a̶g̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶o̶l̶e̶d̶o̶ ̶M̶u̶d̶ ̶H̶e̶n̶s̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶3̶0̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶s̶"̶.̶ who had been twice fired and failed to get a job during the regular off season.

Think you know the difference between the 2012 A's and the movie "Major League?"  Click here to take the BISR quiz.

More on Beane's Post-Moneyball Trades

Yesterday we broke down some Billy Beane's post-Moneyball trades to see if he could still be considered a genius.  The results were split, the Hudson trade was terrible, the Mulder trade a stroke of artistry.  Today we look at two trades that also involved two top of the rotation talents and the Nick Swisher deal, all from 2008.  As we did yesterday we are using Wins Above Replacement as our measure of how players fared after each trade.  The higher the WAR the better the performance.

Rich Harden SP:

-6 years, 36-19, 541.2 IP, 3.42 ERA, WHIP 1.238, WAR 11.8

-2 years, 14-10, 212.0 IP, 3.31 ERA, WHIP 1.217, WAR 4.0

Sean Gallagher SP:

-2007, 0-0, 14.2 IP, 8.59 ERA, WHIP 2.114, WAR –0.5

-2 years, 3-5,  71.0 IP, 6.34 ERA, WHIP 1.746, WAR –1.5

Scott Hairston OF:

-2008, 362 PA, .248 AVG, .791 OPS, WAR 2.1

-1 year, 248 PA, .236 AVG, .653 OPS, WAR –0.8

Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B:

-2009, 529 PA, .255 AVG, .722 OPS, WAR 1.1

-2 years, 735 PA, .242 AVG, .666, WAR 0.6 (Sent to minors due to bad defense)

Eric Sogard IF:

-2009, 530 PA, .293 AVG, .771 OPS (Minors)

-1 year, 9 PA, .429 AVG, .984 OPS, WAR 0.0 (Still in Minors)

Eric Patterson 2B/LF:

-2008, 53 PA, .239 AVG, .625 OPS, WAR –0.5

-3 years, 325 PA, .221 AVG, .638 OPS, WAR -0.5

Fabian Williamson SP:

-2010, 9-5, 128.1 IP, WHIP 1.590

-No appearances, still in minors

Matt Murton LF:

-2007, 261 PA, .281 AVG, .791 OPS, WAR 0.7

-1 year, 31 PA, .100 AVG, .262, WAR –0.2

Corey Wimberly UTIL:

-2008, 449 PA, .291, .716 OPS, (Minors)

-No appearances, in minors elsewhere

Josh Donaldson:

-2008, 461 PA, .267 AVG, .772 OPS (Minors)

            -1 year, 34 PA, .156 AVG, .487 OPS, -0.3 (Currently in minors)

So Harden was an amazing talent who actually wasn't that helpful averaging just under two extra wins/year during his first stint with the A's.  After he left it was more of the same as he averaged the same two Wins Above Replacement in his next two years with Chicago and Texas.  The guys who came back in that trade and the guys those guys got traded for were actually much worse combining for a -3.3 WAR if we don't count the WAR shares from Kevin Kouzmanoff that we counted yesterday.  Still, unlike the Hudson trade this wasn't a bad deal at the time.  Billy, Rich, Rich's mom, and the rest of us knew he was going to get hurt again, and again, and again so trying to get something for him was the right move.

Joe Blanton SP:

-5 years, 47-46, 760.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, WHIP 1.330, WAR 8.9

-4 years, 26-16, 476.0 IP, 4.46 ERA, WHIP 1.380, WAR 2.6

Josh Outman SP:

-2007, 12-7, 159.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, WHIP 1.374 (Minors)

-3 years, 8-6, 139.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, WHIP 1.303 WAR 2.5

Adrian Cardenas IF:

-2007, 564 PA, .295 AVG, .770 OPS (Minors)

-Still in minors

Matthew Spencer OF:

-2007, 198 PA, .263 AVG, .789 OPS (Minors)

-Still in minors

Aaron Miles 2B:

-2009, 170 PA, .185 AVG, .466 OPS, WAR –1.4

-Never appeared for the A’s

Adam Rosales 2B:

-2009, 266 PA, .213, .620 OPS WAR –0.2

-2 years, 315 PA, .253 AVG, .696 OPS, WAR 1.0

Jake Fox LF/IF:

-2009, 241 PA, .259 AVG, .779 OPS, WAR 0.4

-1 year, 106 PA, .214 AVG, .591 OPS, WAR –0.5

Ross Wolf RP:

-2009, 4-2, 82 IP, 3.95 ERA, WHIP 1.256 (Minors)

-1 year, 0-0, 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, WHIP 1.421 WAR 0.0 (In minors elsewhere)

Win!  In limited action over the last three years Outman has already equaled Blanton's WAR production roughly 1/4 the number of innings.  Yes Blanton won a World Series but it wasn't the Joe Blanton show.  Spencer was turned into Aaron Miles, who never appeared for the A's, and Jake Fox.  Miles became Adam Rosales who's been worth 1 extra win over the last two years.  Sure Fox cost the team half a win and was traded for nothing but we're still up on this one.  Right now anything the A's get from Cardenas is a bonus.

Nick Swisher RF/1B:

-4 years, 1924 PA, .251 AVG, .825 OPS, WAR 9.0

-4 years, 2142 PA, .241 AVG, .800 OPS, WAR 9.7 (With Yankees)

Faustino De Los Santos RP:

-2007, 10-5, 122.3 IP, 2.65 ERA, WHIP .916 (Minors)

-1 year, 2.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, WHIP .857, WAR 0.0 (Prospect)

Gio Gonzalez SP:

-2007, 9-7, 150 IP, 3.18 ERA, WHIP 1.153 (Minors)

-4 years 20-25, 435.1 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.413 WAR 5.6 (Doing well)

Ryan Sweeney OF:

-2007, 49 PA, .200 AVG, .599 OPS, WAR –0.3

            -4 years, 1453 PA, .290 AVG, .735 OPS, WAR 5.0 (Solid) 

Basically Swish has been Swish.  He hasn't changed much over time.  In return the A's got three very good prospects from the White Sox.  Sweeny and Gio have more than replaced Swisher's production with the downside being that they've taken up two positions on the field to do it.  If Sweeny had been able to equal Swisher's out put on his own this would have been a great trade.  As it is, the real story of this trade will likely depend on what Gio does for the rest of his time in the green and gold.  A likely scenario is that he'll eventually be traded for more prospects.  De Los Santos is likely on his way to Oakland right now and if he can produce this thing could swing slightly in the A's favor, as it is it's basically a wash.

Next time we wrap up this three part series by looking at actual replacement players.  Billy's let a few guys walk as free agents, I'll examine the value of those decisions.  Cheers.

Billy Bails

The 2011 MLB trade deadline has come and gone and even though the A's are going nowhere Billy Beane only made one move, sending relief pitcher Brad Ziegler to the Diamondbacks for a couple prospects. It may turn out to be a great move but the fact is the A's could have done so much more. Hideki Matsui, Coco Crisp, Rich Harden, Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, and Brandon McCarthy are all free agents at the end of the year and are unlikely to return. I for one was hoping for a complete fires ale of all players not under club control beyond this year but either Billy thinks he'd rather see what these guys have so he can gauge resigning them or the rest of baseball is scared. The A's did have a deal in place to send Rich Harden to the Red Sox but that fell through when the Sox got spooked. Maybe they saw a preview for the Moneyball movie and remembered how Billy fleeced so many other teams in the past.

So without much to analyze this year let's take a look back. Not all the way back, I don't want to ruin the movie for you so let's look at the post-Moneyball trades and see how good Billy has been. Some people have looked at the A's struggles since 2006 and scoffed that the Moneyball ideals don't work anymore. Of course this is complete buffoonery since the stats so revered in Moneyball (i.e. OPS) are now driving huge salaries in New York and Boston. Of course what the Moneyball philosophy is really about is finding out what people aren't paying huge money for and trying to get that skill on the cheap. In recent years in Oakland that's meant a return to valuing speed and defense, exactly the skills overvalued prior to the release of Moneyball.

So, how has our man Billy done since everyone found out how smart he is? Below is a break down of the major trades Billy's made since, and including, breaking up Oakland's vaunted Big Three back in 2004. The chart looks at three measures of player value, On-base Plus Slugging (OPS_ for hitters, Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) for pitchers and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for both. For context here's how career OPS looks for three hitters, two are very good and one is famously bad:

Barry Bonds: 1.051
Albert Pujols: 1.041
Mario Mendoza: .507

You probably know Bonds and Pujols are great hitters. Mendoza is the name sake of "The Mendoza Line" which represents a .200 batting average.

For more context here's the WHIP numbers for three pitchers, again, two very good and one very bad.

Cy Young: 1.130
Sandy Koufax: 1.106
Vin Mazzaro 1.630

Cy Young is the guy they named the Cy Young award after. Sandy Koufax is someone you should look up if you don't know who he is. Vin Mazzaro recently had two of the worst days a pitcher has ever had. First he gave up 14 runs in 2.1 innings and was sent to the minors. It was statistcally the worst game ever pitched by anyone in the majors ever. For the year Mazzaro's WHIP sits at 2.137 which is just gawd awful.


I think the WAR stat is the most instructive here as it tells us what the stats meant in terms of each player contributing wins to the club over multiple seasons.

The chart is a little funky, each time you see an indent and a player's name and stats it means the indented player was traded for the player above him.  Each player blurb reads like this:

Name Name Pos:
-What they did the year(s) before the trade (and at what level)
-What they did after the trade (Comment)

For example, let's look at a trade that did not work out well for Oakland even if you figure the player, Tim Hudson, wasn't going to resign with the A's.


Tim Hudson SP:
-6 years, 92-39, 1240.2 IP, 3.30 ERA WAR 28.9
-7 years, 79-54, 1147.2 IP, 3.54 ERA WAR 19.5 (Still in ATL)

• Charles Thomas OF:
• -1 year, 267 PA, .288 AVG WAR 2.1
• -1 year, 55 PA, .109 AVG WAR –0.2 (Last Appearance, out of baseball)

• JD Closser C:
• -2006, 112 PA, .196 AVG WAR -0.1
• -No Appearances for Oakland (In minors elsewhere)

• Juan Cruz RP:
• -2004, 6-2, 75 IP, 2,75 ERA WAR 1.1
• -1 year, 0-3, 32.2 IP, 7.44 ERA WAR –1.1 (Doing OK elsewhere)

• Brad Halsey SP:
• -2005, 8-12, 160 IP, 4.61 ERA WAR -0.1
• -1 year, 5-4, 94.1 IP, 4.67 ERA WAR 0.4 (Last Appearance, in minors elsewhere)

Dan Meyer RP:
-2004, 9-6, 126.1 IP, 2.49 ERA (Minors)
-2 years, 0-6, 44.0 IP, 7.98 ERA WAR –1.8 (Journeyman, in minors elsewhere)

So how do we read this?  Well, Hudson did well enough in 6 years in Oakland that he likely helped the team win almost 29 extra games over that span, roughly 5 games/year.  In return the A's got three guys, plus two guys from a subsequent trade who combined to help them lose a combined 2.7 (negative WAR means the player is costing you wins) extra games over the next two years.  Essentially the A's would have been better off keeping Hudson in 2005 and then letting him walk.  In the meantime Hudson has continued to be pretty darn good for Atlanta helping them win almost 3 extra games/year compared to an average replacement player.

Now, let's look at a much more complicated but also much more successful trade, Mark Mulder:

Mark Mulder SP:

-5 years, 81-42, 1003 IP, 3.92 ERA, WHIP 1.284, WAR 17.5

-4 years, 22-18, 311 IP, 5.04 ERA, WHIP 1.531, WAR –1.4 (Last Appearance, out of baseball)

Kiko Calero RP:

-2004, 3-1, 45.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, WHIP .816, WAR 0.8

-4 years 8-8, 159 IP, 3.96 ERA, WHIP 1.321, WAR 1.8 (Journeyman, out of baseball)

Daric Barton 1B:

-2004, 393 PA, .313 AVG, .956 OPS (Minors)

-5 years, 1765 PA, .252 AVG, .740 OPS, WAR 6.2 (Recently sent down to minors)

Dan Haren SP:

-2004, 3-3, 46 IP, 4.50 ERA, WHIP 1.348, WAR 0.1

-3 years,  37-26, 662 IP, 3.64 ERA, WHIP 1.212, WAR 11.7 (Doing well)

Brett Anderson SP:

-2007, 11-7, 120.1 IP, 3.07 ERA, WHIP 1.564 (Minors)

-3 years, 21-23, 371 IP, 3.66 ERA, WHIP 1.267, WAR 5.9 (Doing OK)

Chris Carter 1B/LF:

-2007, 545 PA, .291 AVG, .906 OPS (Minors)

-2 years, 79 PA, .183 AVG, .573 OPS, WAR –0.7 (Prospect)

Dana Eveland RP:

-2007, 1-0, 5 IP, 14.40 ERA, WHIP 2.60, WAR –0.4

-2 years, 11-13, 212 IP, 4.92 ERA, WHIP 1.627, WAR 0.8 (Last Appearance, in minors elsewhere)

Aaron Cunningham OF:

-2007, 573 PA, .308 AVG, .885 OPS, (Minors)

-2 years, 144 PA, .211 AVG, .609 OPS, WAR –0.6 (Meh)

Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B:

-2009, 529 PA, .255 AVG, .722 OPS, WAR 1.1

-2 years, 735 PA, .242 AVG, .666, WAR 0.6 (Sent to minors due to bad defense)

Eric Sogard IF:

-2009, 530 PA, .293 AVG, .771 OPS (Minors)

-1 year, 9 PA, .429 AVG, .984 OPS, WAR 0.0 (Still in Minors)

Carlos Gonzalez CF:

-2007 547 PA, .288 AVG, .814 OPS (Minors)

-1year, 316 PA, .242 AVG, .634 OPS, WAR 1.1 (3^rd in MVP 2010 for Colorado)

Greg Smith SP:

-2007, 9-5, 122 IP, 3.54, WHIP 1.510 (Minors)

-1 year,  7-16, 190.1 IP, 4.16 ERA, WHIP 1.345, WAR 2.0 (In minors elsewhere)

Matt Holliday LF:

-2008, 623 PA, .321 AVG, .947 OPS, WAR 4.8

-1 year, 400 PA, .286 AVG, .831 OPS, WAR 2.4 (Doing well for Cards)

Shane Peterson OF:

-2009, 571 PA, .288 AVG, .768 OPS (Minors)

-Still in minors

Brett Wallace 3B:

-2009, 600 PA, .293 AVG, .822 OPS (Minors)

-No Appearances for Oakland now in majors with Houston

            Michael Taylor OF:

            -2009, 491 PA, .320 AVG, .850 OPS (Minors)

-Still in minors

Clayton Mortensen SP:

-2009, 0-0, 3 IP, 6.00 ERA, WHIP 2.00, WAR –0.3

-2 years, 2-4, 33.2 IP, 7.22 ERA, WHIP 1.693, WAR –1.0 (Meh)

            Ethan Hollingsworth SP:

-2010, 12-8, 170.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, WHIP 1.839 (Minors)

-Still in minors

 

So, Mark Mulder who in five seasons in Oakland was worth 17.5 extra wins all on his own, an average of 3.5 wins/year goes to St Louis and costs them roughly a game and a half over four injury plagued years.  In return the A's got Daric Barton, Kiko Calero, and Dan Haren, a direct combined WAR value of 19.7 over the last seven years.  Just with that the A's clearly win this trade and Billy's a good GM.  But the fun doesn't stop there because Haren (and a couple other spare parts) was turned into the fantastic haul of Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith who contributed another 8.5 Wins Above Replacement.  But wait!  There's More!  Aaron Cunningham became Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard and another 0.6 wins.  CarGo and Greg Smith became Matt Holliday's 2.4 wins for half of 2009.  Trading Holliday actually cost a win no thanks to Clay Mortensen but it also gave s Brett Wallace who became Michael Taylor who should be up in Oakland the September.  All told the Mulder deal netted the A's 30 wins over what they would have gotten from your average players over that time plus prospects.  If you factor in avoiding the losses Mulder incurred that's a net of almost 35 extra wins over the last seven seasons.  WINNING!


OK, I think that's good for now.  Next post we'll break down the Rich Harden and Joe Blanton trades.

A Farewell to Arms (Part One)

And so baseball economics hits home again. The A’s have traded Tim Hudson and yet another era comes to a close. Hudson was the cornerstone of the A’s return to respectability. Hudson came up mid-year in 1999 and posted an 11-2 record in 21 starts. I’ll never forget his debut against the San Diego Padres. At the time I was living in a small one-bedroom apartment in South Berkeley. Because the A’s had been terrible for 7 years the game was only being broadcast over the radio. I remember Ken Korauch and Bill King talking about how excited the A’s were about Hudson. In his first ML game, in his first ML at bat, just as Ken was saying that Huddy had been an outfielder and a DH in collage, and had led the NCAA in slugging his senior year, Huddy smacked a ringing double off the wall that missed being a home run by about two feet. Hudson only pitched five innings, giving up seven hits, four walks, and three runs, getting a no decision, but he struck out 11. The next year Huddy won 20 and led the A’s back to the playoffs for the first time since 1992.

Hudson has been the rock upon which Billy Beane has built his franchise. For long time A’s fans he represented the A’s resurgence more than any other player. Now Eric Chavez is the only player left from that 1999 season in which the A’s missed the Wild Card by 4 games. The A’s have lost many a marquee player over the past six years, (if want a full rundown read through the archives at the bottom of the page), but this is a unique case for two reasons. First, this is the first time the A’s have traded a star player rather than try to win now and allow him to leave as a free agent. Second, this is the first time a player hasn’t blasted the team, the city and the fans on his way out of town. Kenny Rogers, Johnny Damon, and Miguel Tejada all made disparaging remarks about Oakland when they left. The grand-daddy of them all of course was Jason Giambi who held a news conference insulting the team, the management and the fans, then went on Letterman and blasted the town. Hudson is a different story. Discussing the trade he said this to mlb.com,

"More than anything, it was sad," Hudson told MLB.com. "I mean, it's not like it was unexpected, what with all the talk the last couple weeks. But hearing it come out of Billy's mouth, making it real, that's when it really just hits you in the face.

"You just kind of realize, 'Man, it's really over.' All the relationships I've built with teammates, with the fans, with people in the organization -- it's hard to think that it's never going to be the same. I'll still be friends with all those people, but knowin' that they're not going to be a part of your everyday life the way they've been for so long, it's definitely sad.

"The fans in Oakland have been so good to me and my family," Hudson said. "All the support they've shown to me over the years, all the nice things they've said to me and the cheers and all that, I can't tell you how much I appreciate it. That's one of the hardest parts about leavin', because I'd have liked to help win them a championship.

"But I understand why Billy traded me. I know he has to do what he thinks is best for the team in the long run, and obviously he's doing it. But I'm really going to miss being there.

"I just want everyone to know how much I loved it in Oakland," he said. "In a perfect world, I'd have been able to play there forever, and me and Mark and Barry [Zito] would always be the Big Three. But it ain't a perfect world, and I know that. It's a business.

"So I'll be pulling for those guys no matter where I am, and who knows? Maybe we'll all meet up again in the World Series or something. Wouldn't that be something?"

Class. Much better than Ben Grieve’s “I won’t miss the fans and I won’t miss the city.” And far better than Giambi’s “Have you ever been to Oakland?” crack-back.

In return for one of the best pitchers in the last ten years the A’s got three prospects, one promising outfielder and two pitchers. Both pitchers project as relievers, though Peter Gammons seems to think that Juan Cruz will take the number four slot in the rotation (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1947932). If Charles Thomas is as good defensively as Gammons says the A’s may be able to move the ever promising, but so far disappointing, Bobby Kielty for more pitching, or maybe a backup middle infielder now that Mark McLemore is gone.

But all that is beside the point. Even if this trade ends up making sense in terms of on field production and payroll flexibility the point is that it’s sad to see Huddy go. As the man said, it’s a business. As Seinfeld said, we root for laundry rather than players. It seems that the day is long gone where you’ll ever see a player stay with one team his entire career. So long Huddy, thank you for bringing us back from the dead, and thank you for not dragging us through another protracted contract battle.

PS As I was preparing to post this I logged on to espn.com and saw that the A’s had traded Mark Mulder to St. Louis. Needless to say I’m in shock and my faith in Billy Beane is badly shaken. On top of that I hear that one of my other favorites, Eric Byrnes, a true sparkplug and one of the last true grit, fan friendly, everyman type players may also be on the block. I don’t know what to say. More on this in the days to come.

-SR

What Happend? Who Do I Blame?

OK, Rant fans I promised a post mortem on the season and here it is. Even though I tried to be optimistic the sad fact is that the season turned out much as I predicted it would; the A's missed the playoffs. But why? Here's a brief look back on what I said then, and what happened in the end.

After the season was a week old I had this to say:

"Scoot has shown something during this first week...he reminds me a lot of Mark Ellis' first few games at second in 2002. So, I looked at Ellis' first five games after he took over the starting job (his first five consecutive games) and compared them to Scoot's first five games. Here's what I found:

Ellis 5 games: .400/0/5/.500/.450/..950
Scutaro 5 games: .313/0/3/.353/.500/.853

Ellis' numbers are better, which we would expect, still Scoot's numbers are very respectable. Ellis ended the year at .273/6/35/.359/.394/.753, never hit a major slump and never lost the starting job."

So what happened?

Here's the final numbers on Scoot who, unlike Ellis did slump at times though mostly when he was moved around in the lineup. In fact he was, at one time, the most productive #9 hitter in baseball. His production from that slot was far superior to his production at any other slot. He platooned with Mark McLemore quite a bit which I'm fine with since McLemore had a decent year. Here's Scoot's numbers compared with Ellis' rookie stats.

-Scoot: .273/7/43/.297/.393/.690 (345)
-Ellis: .272/6/35/.359/.394/.753 (455)

Like I said at the start of the year Scoot's year compare favorably to Ellis' rookie season. He had slightly better raw offensive numbers even though he had 110 fewer at bats. Still, Ellis' season ranks higher because of his better OBP and OPS. Scoot was not as flashy as Ellis in the field, but by measurable standards his .983 fielding percentage was better than Ellis' .968. The bottom line is that the loss of Ellis for the year was not a primary cause for their failure to make the playoffs this year.

Outfielders:

This was a huge issue coming into the season. Would Dye rebound? Would Kotsay rebound? Would Byrnes rebound? Would Kielty deliver on the promise he showed in Minnesota? With all this rebounding going on, is this really a baseball team? Where's Shaq? Here's what I said this spring:

"-Kotsay needs to do better than last year, and better than his career averages of .281/12/63/.338/.756(582AB). Still, he's better than T-Long on both offense and defense."

Here's what happened:

-Kotsay .314/15/63/.370/.459/.829 (606)
-Long .295/03/28/.355/.420/.756 (288)

Kotsay ended up with better numbers across the board as Long proved that he was what Macha told him he was last year, a part time player who was lucky to be in a situation that afforded him an opportunity to play almost everyday. Once Long got to San Diego where they had better outfielders he became the role player he was destined to be. As I wrote in mid season, "Long thinks he'd be a great 5 hole hitter, the Padres seem to think he makes a good pinch hitter." Long's 288 ABs were his fewest since becoming a regular player.

I also said:

"-Dye clearly needs to bounce back. His numbers have dropped every year he's been in Oakland. If Dye can stay healthy and get back to the numbers he had in 2000-2001 the A's will be very dangerous. Dye could be the X factor for the A's this year."

Here's what happened:

-Dye .265/23/80/.329/.464/.793

Dye did rebound, but he was not the X factor I'd hoped he'd be. While his numbers were better than they'd been the past couple years they still did not approach the production he'd had when the A's traded for him in 2001.

Finally, I said:

"Byrnes will get some good PT and will likely be a late inning defensive replacement. He brings great energy to the team and a badly needed infusion of speed. If he could just remember to touch home plate he'd be invaluable. So far the talk I've heard says that Bobby Kielty's fast start will keep Eric Byrnes from getting much PT. However Macha is trying to find spots for him (Byrnesie's only AB so far was his PH double that won the game against Texas on opening day). "

Final numbers for Byrnes and Kielty look thuslike:

-Byrnes .283/20/73/.347/.467/.814 (569)
-Kielty .214/07/31/.321/.370/.691 (238)

Kielty couldn't keep up his early season pace and ended up with only 238 ABs. Depending on his contract status he'll either be traded, allowed to leave, or end up as a backup to Nick Swisher who I predict will end up a starter and ROY candidate next year. I think Kielty has value because he's a switch hitter and he has a big arm in the outfield.

To summarize, the outfielders are not the reason the A's missed the playoffs.

The Rookie:

"Bobby Crosby will be the starting short stop at some point next season."

Yeah, like on opening day. So what did Sir Rantalot predict for the youngster?

"Crosby did better at AAA: .308/22/90 (compared with .000/0/0 in his call up last season). He should be OK this year but his true impact will likely be felt in the years to come. It took Tejada three years before he really blossomed. There's a ton more pressure on Crosby than there was on Tejada back in '97. Hopefully he can handle it better than Carlos Pena did."

Crosby ended up having a decent year. Sure, it was nothing like Tejada's, but it didn't hurt too bad. He was OK at the plate and better than expected in the field. How good was his rookie season? Let's look at Crosby compared to a couple other touted A's rookies. Tejada and Ben Grieve both came up to the show to stay in 1997, here's alook at the rookie seasons for the three players:

-Grieve .288/18/89/.386/.458/.844

-Crosby .239/22/64/.319/.426/.744

-Tejada .233/11/45/.298/.384/.682

So here we see Crosby sandwiched between the two. As you may recall Grieve won the ROY that year and was projected for greatness while Tejada was considered a raw prospect who may or may not develop into a productive major leaguer. Hmmm...So, what can we deduce from Crosby's stats? Nothing. For every Chipper Jones there's a Todd Hollandsworth. Crosby won't be the AL ROY this year (Lew Ford leads all rookies in most offensive categories). We won't know what Crosby will be until a few years from now when he becomes it. What we do know is that overall Crosby didn't hurt the team by not being Tejada. In fact, he probably helped a lot just by being Bobby Crosby, knowing his role and not pressing too much. Sure, it would have been nice to have Tejada's .311/34/150, but the bottom line is that Crosby is not the reason the A's missed the playoffs.


Catchers:

"News Flash! Damian Miller is not Ramon Hernandez!"

I meant this in terms of offense, and it continued to be true throughout the year. Here's the season totals for each player:

-Miller: .272/09/58/.339/.403/.742 (397)
-Hernandez: .276/18/63/.341/.477/.818 (384)

I also said this:

"I'm sure someone knows how many runs Miller has saved behind the plate, but that person ain't me."

So, was there a defensive difference between the two?


FPCT PB SBA CS CS% CERA INN*
Miller .999 9 46 35 .435 4.24 963
Hernandez .992 7 53 21 .284 4.03 925

*FPCT = Fielding Percentage PB = Passed Balls SBA = Stolen Bases Allowed CS = Caught Stealing CS% = Percentage of Runners Caught Stealing CERA = Catcher's ERA (Team ERA with this catcher behind the plate) INN = Innings Caught

In raw numbers Miller was better than Hernandez in almost every defensive category save two. Among the two only one is really important, but it's really important. First the less important one, Miller had two more PB than Hernandez. I know what yer thinking, he also caught 38 more innings. Still, Miller allowed a PB every 107 INN (or 1 every 12 games) while Hernandez only allowed one PB every 132 INN (or 1 every 14 games). That's a difference of .00178 PB/INN, statistically startling, if yer building a bridge, fairly insignificant in real life. The big difference between Miller and Hernandez is the CERA, Hernandez allowed fewer runs than Miller did which is significant (more on this later).

Again, I know what yer thinking, it's not fair to compare CERA numbers between two guys who were working with different staffs. Yer right. So let's look at something else I said this spring,

"Since the playoffs I've become a big Adam Melhuse fan. Despite his choke in game 5 he showed ability to hit in the clutch. Who knows what he'd do over a full year, but his numbers .299/5/14/.372/.957(77AB) look good. Macha says that players write the lineup and I'm hoping Melhuse takes the job from Miller who is a big drop from Hernandez."

So, let's compare Melhuse and Miller:

Offense:

-Melhuse : .257/11/31/.309/.463/.771 (214)
-Miller: .272/9/58/.339/.403/.742 (397)

The raw numbers show that Melhuse hit for a higher average and for more power thought he had a lower OBP. Miller's RBI numbers are actually close to Melhuse's when you adjust for the disparity in ABs with Miller getting an RBI every 6.8 ABs and Melhuse getting an RBI every 6.9 ABs.

Defense:

FPCT PB SBA CS CS% CERA INN
-Melhuse .995 5 27 13 .325 4.05 504
- Miller .999 9 46 35 .435 4.24 963

Like with Hernandez Miller leads in every category except two, the same two. We know Miller passed a ball every 12 games. Melhuse was a little better allowing a PB every 101 INN (or 1 every 11 games). The difference there is only .00057 PB/INN. The major difference between the two is that Melhuse had a lower CERA than Miller working with primarily the same pitchers.

The upshot of all this is that Melhuse was better than Miller. Miller got more playing time based on the reputation that he is a wiz at handling pitchers, a reputation that is not born out by the numbers. Despite this, the catching rotation is not the reason the A's missed the playoffs, but we're getting closer, Especially with the whole CERA thing.

The Smoking Gun:

As you may have noticed, I have eliminated almost all of the position players as reasons for the A's missing the playoffs. I didn't discuss the bench, but to make a long story slightly less long, the bench ain't to blame. Overall, the offense was not to blame. Here's the team's offensive totals for this year (no playoffs) and last year playoffs!).

2003 Team: .254/176/742/.327/.417/.743
2004 Team:.270/189/752/.343/.433/.776

As you can see, this year's team was better in every offensive category. The offense was good enough to get the job done.

I've mentioned that I think Miller was part of the problem, so who does that leave?

That's right Rant fans, the blame falls squarely on...Curt Young. That's right, #41 in your program, but #1 in your bile duct, it's A's pitching coach Curt Young. I guess you could also blame whoever (rhymes with Jilly Jeane) allowed Rick Peterson to leave the organization. The bottom line for the season is this; the pitching staff, across the board, was not as good as it was in 2003. Here's what I said in October:

"The A's may allow pitching coach Rick Peterson to move to the Mets without compensation. That's right, the A's may lose one of the best coaches in the game in return for absolutely nothing. If you have any doubts about Peterson's value to the team just look at the staff. Sure, the big three are very good pitchers with a ton of ability, but look at what Peterson did with some more marginal talent. Losing Peterson would be as huge a loss for Oakland as losing Tejada. Letting Peterson go would be a huge mistake. Peterson's value to the team is second only to Billy Beane's. Peterson makes the A's staff go. He is a mechanics guru and is a big part of the reason that the big three have stayed as healthy as they have. He can find the positives in almost anyone and turn shaky pitchers into solid contributors. If he does go to the Mets expect two things, a rise in Oakland's team ERA along with a sharp decline in wins, and at least 15 wins from Steve Trachsel.

So what happened? The numbers speak for themselves:

Team Pitching:

2003: 96-66 3.63 ERA
2004: 91-71 4.17 ERA

Yes, this represents a decline of only five wins. But that's misleading, especially if you look at the jump in offense. As I predicted, the loss of Peterson led to a decline in the A's pitching.

Blown Saves:

The A's had 26 blown saves this year. Read that again, TWENTY-SIX BLOWN SAVES!!! They lost the division by one game. For the math impaired this means that if they had blown just two fewer saves they would have made the playoffs. It means that if they had blown just 20% fewer saves they would have won the division long before the ALWS began.

The Big Three saw their ERAs jump this year.

2003 2004 Diff.
Barry Zito 3.30 4.48 1.18
Tim Hudson 2.70 3.53 0.83
Mark Mulder 3.13 4.43 1.30

Also, Hudson was injured for an extended stretch for the first time in his career, Zito saw a continued decline in his confidence (23-5 in '02, 14-12 in '03 and 11-11 this year.), and Mulder won like one game after the all-star break.

Trachsel:

I like using Trachsel as my prototypical mediocre pitcher, just good enough to stick around, not good enough to be good. Unfortunately for my theory, Trachsel was Trachsel again this year. His .480 win % this year was only slightly better than his career win % of.474. Still, over all the Mets pitching staff saw their ERA decline form 4.48 in 2003 to 4.09 in 2004, with roughly the same staff.

So the bottom-line: the pitching coach let us down, and the front office let us down by continuing to allow the talent ebb out of Oakland (let us note that two recent A's, Damon and Foulke, just won it all). Looking ahead to next season I see...another column at another time. Suffice it to say that I don't like some of what I've been hearing, like that the A's may let Byrnes walk because he's due a raise. As I said last year, chip, chip, chip, how long before we become the KC Royals? Unless something changes I give it two more years.

Dem Bums

Pessimism. It's a disease, an affliction of the soul. It rears it's ugly head for countless people, in countless places across the country, many of them in Boston between the months of April and October. Sports pessimism was large part of my later childhood. My stepfather is the ultimate sports pessimist. During tight games he would mime throwing heavy objects at the television, every once in a while he would launch a baby toy or a balled up sock. Though I will not discount his influence on me, by the time I was 18 I had surpassed him in both rabid fandom and sports knowledge on every aspect of the game save whether to take the Knicks and the over parlayed to Tampa Bay-Baltimore with teased to the final goals against average between Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek, I did become a sports pessimist, primarily on my own. Ever since the Niners refused to resign Ricky Watters and Eric Davis, ever since Don Bebee jumped up and ran for a score on a muddy Candlestick Monday, ever since I saw Big Mac traded for Blake Stein and TJ Matthews, I have been a sports pessimist.

It used to kill my friend, the estimable DMJ, who was, at the time, the ultimate sports optimist. I tried to teach sports optimism in my brother, hoping that if I taught him well my own dogma would rub off on me. "Never leave before the final out. Especially in baseball, because you never know when you'll see something amazing." I told my brother this many times. Then, one night, we went to see the A's play the Giants in Oakland. Down two runs, with two on and one out, Tony Phillips was thrown out on the back end of a 6-5-3 double play. As Phillips got up to argue we started packing up. The scoreboard showed three outs in the ninth inning, game over. We paused and watched Phillips argue with the ump when the he got the thumb, PA announcer, "Tony Phillips has been ejected from the ballgame." "That's odd," I said, "why eject a guy when the game's over?" We were standing on the BART platform when we heard a cheer rise from the stadium. Then the station agent made the following announcement, "Ladies and gentlemen, Olmedo Saenz has just hit a three run homer to win the ball game." And we missed it. All because I lost track of what inning it was (and the scoreboard operator changed the inning graphic before the outs graphic). The point being, I've never left a game early since. You never know when Cleveland will come back from 20 some runs down to win in the ninth, when Buckner will let one slip through, when Kirk Freaking Gibson will hobble off the trainers table with no knees and one elbow to hit a game winning jack off the Eck. You never give up, you never leave early, especially in baseball where there is no clock, but even in football, because Garcia to Streets became the second biggest comeback in playoff history and I've met people who left in the third quarter.

Things have changed somewhat in the past couple years. DMJ has now become a sports pessimist while I have renewed faith. It started with "The Redemption Reception" (ridiculous name), and was bolstered by the "Botched snap, pass interference that wasn't." It was rooted in "90-O," and sprang eternal when Olmedo Saenz sent a Clemens slider deep into the Bronx October night.

Still, I will say that in May of 2002 I called for the A's to "trade everyone." The shake up that came in June did turn the team around. Strangely enough, the most optimistic sports fan I know is from Boston. I get to hear all about it when his Bo-Sux beat my beloved A-mazing-'s. Boston's sux-sess in the recent series against Oakland has not been at all tempered by the fact that his team is 6 games out of first. Still, despite the sweep, despite the fact that the A's are behind Boston for the wild card, despite Barry Zito's 4-6 record and 4+ ERA, despite Chavey's injury, despite the low OBP being masked by a higher-than-recent-years team BA, despite all this, I believe the A's can make the playoffs. I do not believe Texas can do it for an whole year (see KC 2003), I do not believe the collection of mercenaries in Anaheim can come close to the magic of 2002. I believe the West is there for us to win. Sure, Hudson, Chavez, and Harden have to get healthy. Mulder has to stay healthy. Zito needs more scented candles or pink pillowcases or teddy bears or whatever it takes to get him going again. Scoot needs to stay in the nine-hole, Karros needs to figure out what's wrong, Rhodes needs to dominate as a set up man as he has in the past. But I still believe the A's can make the playoffs. I say this despite the fact that I predicted early on that this would be the A's team to finally not make the playoffs after four consecutive trips.

Sure, my new found optimism has taken some hits. Jeter's shovel pass to nail a (still, no matter how many times I watch the replay) not sliding Jeremy Giambi, the inability of a pinch hitter to swing the bat, bottom nine, down one, with the bases loaded, the 49ers constant cap woes, the hiring of Dennis Erickson, all of these have dampened my enthusiasm at times. But I still have Josh Beckett in 2003*, Ramon Hernandez's surprise bunt, Billy Beane's constant genius. I still have the knowledge that there's 80 some odd games left, that the Sux will eventually Buckner their way out of the hunt, and the knowledge that there's always, always, next year.

* See the archives, I predicted Beckett would be the MVP of that series and that the Marlins would win in seven. I was close, they won in six.

Transitions

Why is it that A’s fans don’t seem to be expressing the same outrage over the Tejada defection that they did over Giambi? There are three reasons. 1) we’re used to it, 2) the O’s are not the Yanks and 3) Tejada kept his mouth shut, it was the owner who put his foot in his mouth. Let’s explore.

1. We’re Used to It

Yes A’s fans we’re used to seeing players leave via free agency. Though we often sign arbitration eligible players and get home-town deals in some cases we are used to seeing our best players move on to greener pastures. It really started in 1993 when the home nine lost Jose Canseco, Harold Baines and Carney Lansford and culminated with the 1997 trade of Mark McGwire. After the strike in 1994 many fans didn’t even notice the decline of a team in a sport no one really paid attention to. By the time the sport rebounded in 1997 (Ripken’s streak) and 1998 (Mac and Sammy) the A’s were a joke, but were starting to rebuild with their “They’re young, but they can play” group. Between 1997 and 2001 the A’s neither signed, traded or lost any big name players. Then they started winning.

Billy Beane (and Sandy Alderson before him) had built a strong farm system that had put a decent team on the field (they missed the wild card by 4.5 games in 1999) and allowed them to make some major trades. The 2000 team that made the playoffs consisted of the typical A’s approach during the lean years. That team was led by old farm hands (Giambi, Ben Grieve, Tejada, Chavez), two promising rookies (Ramon Hernandez, Terrence Long), and productive guys reclaimed off the scrap heap (John Jaha and Matt Stairs). Along with some decent, if unspectacular pitchers (Kevin Appier, Gil Heredia, Omar Oliveras) and the Young Three (Hudson, Mulder, Zito).

By 2002 the future was looming and the A’s began the pattern that would haunt them through this off-season. They lost Johnny Damon, Jason Isringhausen, and Jason Giambi, made some good trades, and signed arbitration eligible Jermaine Dye. In 2003 they lost Billy Koch, Ray Durham, David Justice and Corey Lidle, but again made some good trades. Now they have lost Long, Hernandez, Keith Foulke, and Tejada, again, trades were made and help is on the way from the farm teams.
The point is that we fans knew this would happen. It’s our lot in life. Some of the sting has been taken out and the attempt to re-sign Foulke helped sooth our vitriol. Beane has kept the team a float for the past five years and we can only guess that he’ll do it again. Of course eventualy the A’s will falter and miss the playoffs, and this may be the year. The wild card might certainly come out of the East this year. With every team gearing up the one hope is that they beat the hell out of each other and leave the rest for Oakland. Unfortunately the rest of the West (including Texas) has gotten significantly better. The M’s brought in Spiezio, Rich Aurillia, “Every day” Eddie Guardado, Quinton McCracken, and Raul Ibanez. The Angels got Jose Guillen, Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar. The Rangers signed Brad Fulmer and Brian Jordan (and kept A-Rod).

2. The O’s are not the Yanks

Giambi went to the evil empire, the team that had just knocked Oakland out of the playoffs, and the kicker was we all knew it was going to happen. To top it off, we knew in March. It was done deal, Tino was too old and the Boss wanted the guy who had hurt the Yanks the most in recent years (if you can really be hurt after winning three rings in a row).

Tejada however did not go to a rival, he didn’t even go to a contender. He went to Baltimore, a franchise that seems to be going back to the rotisserie baseball style of management that failed in the late 1990’s (thanks Jeffrey Mayer). In recent seasons the O’s have been unable to attract top free agents, even thought they had money to spend. Now they seem ready to give up on a promising young group of position players in favor of trying to keep up with the Stienies. Where we all felt betrayed by Giambi leaving us for our most hated rival, with the chance to win a ring we can only feel that Tejada deserves whatever he gets. He took the money and went to a club that doesn’t have a great chance to win. If he succeeds its because he worked hard and really brought a championship to B-More, if he fails to make the playoff for the next six years then its his fault for taking the money.

3. He kept his mouth shut

This may be the biggest reason of all that the Tejada defection hurts less. In contrast to Giambi Tejada never said anything controversial. Jason said he wanted to stay in Oakland, hinted that he would take less to stay here, then, before game five of the ALDS he went on a diatribe about how much he loved NY, always wanted to play in NY and referenced how “knowledgeable” NY fans are. The implication being that fans in Oakland are dumb as a rock. Then, after shocking no one by signing in NY Giambi went on Letterman and trashed not only the A’s, but the city and the fans. Now, I won’t apologize for the sparse attendance at A’s games, I don’t see why they don’t draw 50,000 every night to see a team that’s made four straight playoff runs, but the fans that were there embraced Giambi from day one. He was the continuing legacy of Big-Mac (including the ‘roids eh BALCO?). He was the embodiment of the A’s bad-boy, have fun, leave it all on the field attitude. In time he was the face of the Oakland A’s, the leader, The Man. Oakland loved him. Then in his first press conference he trashed it, he said he didn’t want to be a leader, he didn’t like the adulation, he was looking forward to being a company man, he shaved, he cut his hair, he conformed, he became a sell-out in every sense of the word.

All Tejada ever said is that he wanted stability for his family. He said his preference was to stay in Oakland if possible, but he always said he would go where he could get a long term deal for as much as possible. Also, unlike Giambi, Oakland never really made Tejada a serious offer. Therefore we fans can’t feel too spurned. Since signing in Baltimore Tejada hasn’t said anything disparaging about the city, the team or the fans. Finally Tejada has never made comments that link money to respect. While Giambi made comments to the effect that he was insulted by the A’s offer, all Tejada has said is that he is happy to have the contract he has. Also, though he made “only” 5.1M last season, he never complained.

The amazing thing is that Tejada had every right to feel slighted by Oakland. Before the season began owner Steve “Don’t Call Me Marge” Schott dismissed the idea of even offering Tejada a contract. Then, when Miggy slumped early on fans I met at the Net were unforgiving.

Miguel Tejada was my favorite player. He still is. I’ve always loved short-stops, from Campy to Snoopy, but Miguel was special. He represents a time when, after the strike, I was rediscovering the national game. Also, Miggy’s rookie year coincided with the beginning of one of favorite family traditions, taking my brother to opening day. Being able to pass on the one thing I remember fondly about my father, to help foster a love of baseball in a new generation is something that will always be dear to me. Now that era is ended, not a single player remains from that era. Maybe that’s why I lobbied so hard to bring back Spiezio. Of course this is coinciding with other changes, my brother is on his way to high school next year. No longer the little boy he was when we started going to games, he now eschews family gatherings to hang with his boys. Losing Miggy is, in some ways, an extension of losing that little boy who used to hang on my every word and mimic my every move. These two eras, Miggy with the A’s and my brother’ childhood are linked. Even though both are over I’m looking forward to the future. Bobby Crosby might be a pretty good player, and my brother will become more of a peer as the years move on. I guess that helps take the sting out of it also.

A lot of IFs

Well the A’s decided not to pick up Scott Spiezio and traded for some light-hitting catcher from Montreal. Adam Melhuse is looking better all the time. Michael Barrett reminds me of Mark Johnson. Johnson Was acquired by the A’s last year in the Keith Foulke deal. He was supposed to be the guy who gave Ramon some time off and could provide some pop off the bench. He spent most of the year at triple A after getting beat out by Melhuse. Barrett’s numbers from last year are unimpressive (.208/10/30/) and he doesn’t even have the high OBP (.280), or patience (21BB vs. 37K) that the A’s usually look for.

But I’m not here to talk about catchers, I’m here to talk about infielders. First off, didn’t the A’s offer 97M over like 8 years to Giambi? But they couldn’t find 70M for Tejada, a younger player with no injury history, who plays everyday, and has been in the system since he was 16? That’s bull-shit. I was resigned to losing Tejada until I realized that the market is down and no one is getting A-Rod/ Manny numbers anymore. Tejada is just as good as Giambi at the plate, and better in the field. The A’s should have at least tried to keep him. I guess they figured that a fan base, desensitized after the departures of Giambi, Izzy, Damon, etc. would just accept the “small market” argument again. Fact is, the A’s should have been able to keep one of their top FAs. Instead the fans get jobbed again. I’m pissed. These moves had better be a precursor to some thing else (i.e. keeping Chavy, or the Big Three). For me it all goes back to MLB denying the sale of the franchise to the Dolich group. Dolich and George Zimmer wanted to turn the franchise around, stop crying about money and lobby hard for a new stadium, “I guarantee it.”

But, I digress. The point is, the A’s still need middle infield help. They cannot go into the season with untested Bobby Crosby as the starter, and Rookie Esteban German as the primary backup, and Frank Menechino who has shown he can’t handle the job on a full time basis. They need a veteran who can eat up some ABs, pinch hit, play some D in the late innings and tutor the kids. I took the liberty of looking at the available FA IFs who might be able to help. Below are their offensive stats (BA/HR/RBI/OBP/OPS/AB), followed by their fielding percentage, last year’s salary and my comments. Almost all these guys are likely to make less this year than they did in 2003.

Jay Bell: .181/00/03/.319/.504/(116AB) [.968] {550K}
--Bell is old. His offensive numbers blow, but the fact that his OBP and OPS are much higher than his average is encouraging. Also, he’s still decent in the field where a lot of younger players struggle. Not a bad, cheap, late inning defensive replacement, give a guy a day off, occasional pinch hitter type. Did I mention he’s really cheap?

Royce Clayton: .228/11/39/.301/.634/(483AB) [.977] {1.50M}
--This is one of the few guys who could really help out. First off he’s a SS, the position where the A’s are thinnest (Ellis, Menechino, and German are 2Bs). His offensive and defensive numbers are decent, if not spectacular.

Pokey Reese: .215/01/12/.271/.533/(107AB) [.969] {1.75M}
--I advocated for the A’s to pick this guy up two years ago when he was a hot young player for the Reds. He’s dropped off severely since then. Reese can play both middle infield positions and he was a decent lead-off hitter in Cincy. If the A’s feel like they can rehab his swing, and his D he might be worth a shot. Ron Washington is a pretty good IF coach, if the price is right Pokey could be a Jim Plunkett type reclamation project.

Eric Young: .251/15/34/.336/.727/(475AB) [.976] {2.00M}
--Ah EY. Once the pride of LA, young has fallen on hard times. It’s hard being traded to Milwaukee. Still EY had the best offensive numbers out of this group (aside from Aurilia) and is better than most of these guys defensively too. He’s an A’s type guy with a good OPS and a OBP much higher then his batting average.

Mark McLemore: .233/02/37/.318/.632/(309AB) [.974] {3.15M}
--Can you believe this guy is 39? Though his offensive numbers were down last year McLemore is another Tony Phillips type guy. He can play both middle IF positions as well some OF. Another guy worth a shot if the price is right.

Rich Aurilia: .277/13/58/.325/.735/(505AB) [.974] {4.25M}
--The attraction here would be getting guy who doesn’t have to move. Aurilia is a super long shot to go to Oakland. He’s too good, and will command too much money (though 5M for him is still less than 12M for Tejada). I would look for Rich to end up either A) where ever Nomar doesn’t get traded (Anaheim?), or in St Louis. Detroit is also looking for a SS to go with newly signed Fernando Vina. Aurilia would be a good fit for Oakland, but he’ll get a better deal elsewhere.

Tony Womack: .226/02/22/.251/.558/(349AB) [.988] {4.50M}
--What happened to this guy? He was a darling in Arizona, and now he’s bounced around a bit. Womack is another one who could play both middle IF positions and some outfield if needed. He can lead off, though his OBP was awful last year. On the plus side he has a good FP. Wouldn’t be my first choice, but not bad.

Fernando Tatis: .194/02/15/.280/.543/(175AB) [.968] {5.25M}
--Remember when this guy hit two grand slams in one inning? Me either. Guess Chan Ho really is that bad. Tatis has slid drastically. He had some very good years in St. Louis and looked like a rising star (hence the contract). Tatis would be a major reclamation, far more so than Reese. His offensive stats from last year are reprehensible, and his D wasn’t that much better. Still, if the price is right...

So how do these guys compare to our current back ups?

Frank Menechino: .193/02/09/.364/.630/(83AB) [.667]
--Worst year ever. Frankie, fan favorite, had a terrible year and limited opportunities to turn it around. The guy hasn’t been the same since Mark Ellis blew by him on the depth chart.

Esteban German: .205/00/01/.295/.500/(39AB) [.982]
--These are German’s career numbers over two cups of coffee in ‘02 and ‘03. Apparently he can play some D. But he hasn’t had to do over a full season. The A’s used to have the luxury of bringing new players along slowly (see Tejada 1997-1999) but now the weight of expectation is upon them. Us fans want the playoffs! We want a championship before the Big Three head to NY, LA, and Boston.

So, who gets Sir Rantalot’s endorsement? Excluding Aurilia as the longest of long shots I vote for either Eric Young or Royce Clayton. Both guys have decent offensive numbers. Offensively Young edges Clayton with a better AVG and a better OBP. Clayton edges Young defensively because he plays a premium defensive position where the A’s are starting a rookie and could use a veteran presence. The second tier consists of Reese (because I refuse to give up on him), Womack, McLemore (good D), Tatis and Bell, in that order. That said, I would be surprised if the A’s sign any of these guys. If they miss the playoffs due to poor play from their young middle infielders I’ll point back to this article and say, “I told you so.” If they win the series (or any playoff series) well, then that’s why Billy Beane has his job, and I’m unemployed.
10:09 pm est

A's Be Damned, Baseball is Still Broken

There is a part of me that wants to see the home nine lose in the first round yet again. I say this because if they win this year, it could mean that they win again. The problem is that there is a very vocal segment of the media that believe that if the A’s win it all this year it will prove that there is nothing wrong with baseball’s economic system. It’s just not true. Ready, Set, Rant!

I’m sick of hearing people say that the Oakland A’s prove that there is nothing wrong with baseball’s economics. Yes, the A’s have a low payroll. Yes they have made the playoff for four straight years. Yes, teams like LA and Baltimore have spent gobs of money with little results. So what? One team does not make a trend. One example does not constitute proof. The A’s are what statisticians call an outlier, a result so different form the rest of the data that it becomes insignificant to the discussion.

The A’s success is attributable to equal parts genius, and luck. Sandy Alderson and Billy Beane were able to take their baseball philosophy and find players who could succeed but were not valued by other clubs. They took guys who were under sized (Tim Hudson), had poor velocity (Barry Zito), were too slow (Jason Giambi), or were defensively challenged (Scott Hatteberg), and made them into a winning team. Their success is due to an organizational philosophy, paraphrased from Michel Lewis’ “Moneyball,” “We can’t afford players with all five tools, so which one tool should we screen for?” The answer is on base percentage. The A’s have taken castoffs like Hatteberg, a catcher who can’t throw, runs slow and has little power and produced a team that has won 3 of the last 4 AL West titles. They also took pitchers no one wanted (Tim Hudson, too short; Barry Zito/ Chad Bradford/ Keith Foulke, no fastball; Jim Mecir, no knees) and put together the best staff in the AL.

Finally Beane has been a master trader over the past five seasons, trading away players the A’s couldn’t resign, or didn’t need for future stars. For example he traded Kenny Rogers in a year the A’s would not make the playoffs and got Terrence Long, a future starter and runner up for rookie of the year. He traded a 38 year old closer and got Jason Isringhausen. He traded a minor leaguer for Billy Koch (11-4 44saves 3.27), then traded Koch for Foulke (9-1, 43 saves, 2.08). In successive years he stole Kevin Appier, Jeremy Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Jermaine Dye from KC, while unloading busts like Ben Grieve, Jose Ortiz, and AJ Hinch. Beane has also always been able to make the trade that got the A’s over the hump in the second half, (Dye, Jose Guillen, etc.). Genius.

The A’s have also been lucky. They hit big in drafting the big three, and have been able to bring players along through their farm system including current stars Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis and Ramon Hernandez. In another stretch of luck, aside from Dye and now Mark Mulder, the A’s have not had any key players miss time due to injury.

But it can’t last forever. Tejada is likely gone after this year, and the A’s will look towards rookie Bobby Crosby to replace him. Guys like Chavez, Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Hatteberg, Foulke and others will command more money when they become free agents than the A’s can afford. The team can only go back to the well for so long, eventually the farm system won’t be able to replace the guys who leave for big money on other teams. When that happens the A’s will fall back to the basement like they did between 1992-1999. Beane will eventually leave also, and who knows if his replacement will be able to keep the ship afloat? The fact is that if the A’s had the same resources as the Yankees they would have kept Giambi, and would be able to keep the nucleus of the team intact. But they can’t and they won’t, and so while teams with money like they Yanks and Braves continue to make the playoffs year after year, teams like the A’s, Twins, and Marlins will have short runs, and then fade away. At the same time teams like the Expos will be eliminated from playoff contention in early April.

Even if the A’s win the World Series this year it doesn’t prove anything. Baseball still needs better revenue sharing and a salary cap. Otherwise the haves will win year after year, while the have-nots make short runs and then fade away. It sucks that some part of me is hoping that my team loses in the short term, so that the game can be fixed for the long hall, but that’s how it goes. Fuck it! Go A’s!