Tuesday, August 2, 2011

More on Beane's Post-Moneyball Trades


Yesterday we broke down some Billy Beane's post-Moneyball trades to see if he could still be considered a genius.  The results were split, the Hudson trade was terrible, the Mulder trade a stroke of artistry.  Today we look at two trades that also involved two top of the rotation talents and the Nick Swisher deal, all from 2008.  As we did yesterday we are using Wins Above Replacement as our measure of how players fared after each trade.  The higher the WAR the better the performance.

Rich Harden SP:
-6 years, 36-19, 541.2 IP, 3.42 ERA, WHIP 1.238, WAR 11.8
-2 years, 14-10, 212.0 IP, 3.31 ERA, WHIP 1.217, WAR 4.0
Sean Gallagher SP:
-2007, 0-0, 14.2 IP, 8.59 ERA, WHIP 2.114, WAR –0.5
-2 years, 3-5,  71.0 IP, 6.34 ERA, WHIP 1.746, WAR –1.5
Scott Hairston OF:
-2008, 362 PA, .248 AVG, .791 OPS, WAR 2.1
-1 year, 248 PA, .236 AVG, .653 OPS, WAR –0.8
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B:
-2009, 529 PA, .255 AVG, .722 OPS, WAR 1.1
-2 years, 735 PA, .242 AVG, .666, WAR 0.6 (Sent to minors due to bad defense)

Eric Sogard IF:
-2009, 530 PA, .293 AVG, .771 OPS (Minors)
-1 year, 9 PA, .429 AVG, .984 OPS, WAR 0.0 (Still in Minors)

Eric Patterson 2B/LF:
-2008, 53 PA, .239 AVG, .625 OPS, WAR –0.5
-3 years, 325 PA, .221 AVG, .638 OPS, WAR -0.5
Fabian Williamson SP:
-2010, 9-5, 128.1 IP, WHIP 1.590
-No appearances, still in minors

Matt Murton LF:
-2007, 261 PA, .281 AVG, .791 OPS, WAR 0.7
-1 year, 31 PA, .100 AVG, .262, WAR –0.2
Corey Wimberly UTIL:
-2008, 449 PA, .291, .716 OPS, (Minors)
-No appearances, in minors elsewhere

Josh Donaldson:
-2008, 461 PA, .267 AVG, .772 OPS (Minors)
            -1 year, 34 PA, .156 AVG, .487 OPS, -0.3 (Currently in minors)

So Harden was an amazing talent who actually wasn't that helpful averaging just under two extra wins/year during his first stint with the A's.  After he left it was more of the same as he averaged the same two Wins Above Replacement in his next two years with Chicago and Texas.  The guys who came back in that trade and the guys those guys got traded for were actually much worse combining for a -3.3 WAR if we don't count the WAR shares from Kevin Kouzmanoff that we counted yesterday.  Still, unlike the Hudson trade this wasn't a bad deal at the time.  Billy, Rich, Rich's mom, and the rest of us knew he was going to get hurt again, and again, and again so trying to get something for him was the right move.


Joe Blanton SP:
-5 years, 47-46, 760.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, WHIP 1.330, WAR 8.9
-4 years, 26-16, 476.0 IP, 4.46 ERA, WHIP 1.380, WAR 2.6
Josh Outman SP:
-2007, 12-7, 159.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, WHIP 1.374 (Minors)
-3 years, 8-6, 139.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, WHIP 1.303 WAR 2.5

Adrian Cardenas IF:
-2007, 564 PA, .295 AVG, .770 OPS (Minors)
-Still in minors

Matthew Spencer OF:
-2007, 198 PA, .263 AVG, .789 OPS (Minors)
-Still in minors
Aaron Miles 2B:
-2009, 170 PA, .185 AVG, .466 OPS, WAR –1.4
-Never appeared for the A’s
Adam Rosales 2B:
-2009, 266 PA, .213, .620 OPS WAR –0.2
-2 years, 315 PA, .253 AVG, .696 OPS, WAR 1.0

Jake Fox LF/IF:
-2009, 241 PA, .259 AVG, .779 OPS, WAR 0.4
-1 year, 106 PA, .214 AVG, .591 OPS, WAR –0.5
Ross Wolf RP:
-2009, 4-2, 82 IP, 3.95 ERA, WHIP 1.256 (Minors)
-1 year, 0-0, 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, WHIP 1.421 WAR 0.0 (In minors elsewhere)
Win!  In limited action over the last three years Outman has already equaled Blanton's WAR production roughly 1/4 the number of innings.  Yes Blanton won a World Series but it wasn't the Joe Blanton show.  Spencer was turned into Aaron Miles, who never appeared for the A's, and Jake Fox.  Miles became Adam Rosales who's been worth 1 extra win over the last two years.  Sure Fox cost the team half a win and was traded for nothing but we're still up on this one.  Right now anything the A's get from Cardenas is a bonus.


Nick Swisher RF/1B:
-4 years, 1924 PA, .251 AVG, .825 OPS, WAR 9.0
-4 years, 2142 PA, .241 AVG, .800 OPS, WAR 9.7 (With Yankees)
Faustino De Los Santos RP:
-2007, 10-5, 122.3 IP, 2.65 ERA, WHIP .916 (Minors)
-1 year, 2.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, WHIP .857, WAR 0.0 (Prospect)

Gio Gonzalez SP:
-2007, 9-7, 150 IP, 3.18 ERA, WHIP 1.153 (Minors)
-4 years 20-25, 435.1 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.413 WAR 5.6 (Doing well)

Ryan Sweeney OF:
-2007, 49 PA, .200 AVG, .599 OPS, WAR –0.3
            -4 years, 1453 PA, .290 AVG, .735 OPS, WAR 5.0 (Solid) 

Basically Swish has been Swish.  He hasn't changed much over time.  In return the A's got three very good prospects from the White Sox.  Sweeny and Gio have more than replaced Swisher's production with the downside being that they've taken up two positions on the field to do it.  If Sweeny had been able to equal Swisher's out put on his own this would have been a great trade.  As it is, the real story of this trade will likely depend on what Gio does for the rest of his time in the green and gold.  A likely scenario is that he'll eventually be traded for more prospects.  De Los Santos is likely on his way to Oakland right now and if he can produce this thing could swing slightly in the A's favor, as it is it's basically a wash.

Next time we wrap up this three part series by looking at actual replacement players.  Billy's let a few guys walk as free agents, I'll examine the value of those decisions.  Cheers.